Daily Reading #86

An ethical man is a Christian holding four aces.
Mark Twain

More war of the Deep State on Donald Trump. “Russian penetration of the White House” is amazing BS, and that is why the heat is on Flynn. John R. Schindler is definitely a representative of the Deep State, based on his background. E.g. “Western Spy Alliance” includes our strong bond with the Israeli intelligence services, with whom we share a lot of raw data, e.g. our evesdropping on world leaders :

http://observer.com/2017/02/donald-trump-administration-mike-flynn-russian-embassy/

I do not grasp why this is a scandal, beyond Flynn not admitting multiple contacts. I mean, the guy was the person who would do this, as it was before the Sec of State was confirmed. His major stupid position is the one on Iran, maybe China. So if Trump is down on him for being too much of a hawk, good. I had not seen that Flynn and Ledeen, a prominent Neocon, had collaborated on a book:

http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2017-02-12/trump-bannon-said-weigh-firing-mike-flynn-over-russian-phone-calls-scandal

This is a rational view of Iran, I believe, and makes Flynn far less rational than I had thought :

http://www.theamericanconservative.com/articles/iran-hawks-take-the-white-house/

ZH has great comments, e.g. in the Flynn article above, this one. Comment sections are part of the ongoing open-source investigations, keeping everyone up to date on evidence as well as interpretations of the evidence. (Sorry I don’t have the info for the commenter, but ZH and wordpress aren’t compatilble with editing html, annoying and I am bad at it, so I failed today. Sorry, commenter.) :

Not only democrats rigged Primary to elect Clinton as presidential candidate last year even though she has poor judgement (violating government cyber security policy) and is incompetent (her email server was not secured) when she was the Secretary of State, and was revealed to be corrupt by Bernie Sanders during the Primary, but also democrats encourage illegal immigration, discourage work, and fraud young voters with free college/food/housing/health care/Obama phone.
However middle class/working class used their common senses voting against her last November. Therefore I am not impressed with the “integrity” and “judgement” of democrats, Anti-Trump protesters, and media who donated/endorsed Clinton during presidential election.

When the Clintons Loved Russia Enough to Sell Them Our Uranium (http://www.breitbart.com/2016-presidential-race/2016/07/25/flashback-cli…)
Wikileaks: Clinton Foundation Chatter with State Dept on Uranium Deal with Russia (http://www.breitbart.com/big-government/2016/10/08/wikileaks-putting-on-…)
Russian officials donated $$$ to Clinton Foundation for Russian military research (http://www.breitbart.com/radio/2016/12/16/schweizer-insecure-left-wants-…)
HILLARY CAMPAIGN CHIEF LINKED TO MONEY-LAUNDERING IN RUSSIA (HTTP://WWW.WND.COM/2016/10/HILLARY-CAMPAIGN-CHIEF-LINKED-TO-MONEY-LAUNDE…)
Cashing in: Illegal immigrants get $1,261 more welfare than American families, $5,692 vs. $4,431 (http://www.washingtonexaminer.com/cashing-in-illegal-immigrants-get-1261…)
DEA Report Shows Infiltration of Mexican Drug Cartels in Sanctuary Cities (http://www.breitbart.com/texas/2015/09/08/dea-report-shows-infiltration-…)
Welfare Discourages Work(http://www.breitbart.com/big-government/2015/04/27/the-science-is-settle…)
Hillary Clinton Says Bernie Sanders’s “Free College” Tuition Plan Is All a Lie (http://www.teenvogue.com/story/clinton-says-sanders-free-tuition-wont-wo
Bill Clinton Impeachment Chief Investigator: I’m ‘Terrified’ of Hillary because we know that there were “People” who “Disappeared” (http://www.breitbart.com/2016-presidential-race/2016/10/30/exclusive-bil…)
Former FBI Asst. Director Accuses Clintons Of Being A “Crime Family” (http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2016-10-30/former-fbi-asst-director-accuse…)
FBI boss Comey’s 7 most damning lines on Clinton (http://www.cnn.com/2016/07/05/politics/fbi-clinton-email-server-comey-da…).
Aides claiming she “could not use a computer,” and didn’t know her email password– New FBI docs (https://www.rt.com/usa/360528-obama-implicated-clinton-email/).
23 Shocking Revelations From The FBI’s Clinton Email Report (http://dailycaller.com/2016/09/02/23-shocking-revelations-from-the-fbis-…)
DOJ grants immunity to ex-Clinton staffer who set up email server (http://www.cnn.com/2016/03/02/politics/hillary-clinton-email-server-just…)
Former House Intelligence Chairman: I’m ‘100 Percent’ Sure Hillary’s Server Was Hacked (http://www.breitbart.com/2016-presidential-race/2016/11/06/former-house-…)
Exclusive — Gen. Mike Flynn: Hillary Clinton’s Email Setup Was ‘Unbelievable Active Criminal Behavior’ (http://www.breitbart.com/2016-presidential-race/2016/11/06/exclusive-gen…)
Clinton directed her maid to print out classified materials (http://nypost.com/2016/11/06/clinton-directed-her-maid-to-print-out-clas…)
Obama lied to the American people about his secret communications with Clinton(http://www.thepoliticalinsider.com/president-barack-obama-hillary-email-…)
Former U.S. Attorney General, John Ashcroft: FBI didn’t ‘clear’ Clinton (https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=VFYQ3Cdp0zQ)
The largest source of Trump campaign funds is small donors giving under $200 (http://www.huffingtonpost.com/entry/donald-trump-self-fund_us_57fd4556e4…)
How mega-donors helped raise $1 billion for Hillary Clinton (https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/how-mega-donors-helped-raise-1-b…)
Final newspaper endorsement count: Clinton 57, Trump 2 (http://thehill.com/blogs/ballot-box/presidential-races/304606-final-news…)
Journalists shower Hillary Clinton with campaign cash (https://www.publicintegrity.org/2016/10/17/20330/journalists-shower-hill…)

Crime pays for Indian politicians. Different crimes, but the same reasons as anywhere that campaign costs are large relative to the support of voters. Voters in India pick ‘strongmen’ because the rule of law is so weak relative to other social forces. Strongmen protect their voters better. Another case of “its the system at fault”, many other countries have similar dynamics, perhaps now the US, accounting for Trump :

http://www.npr.org/sections/parallels/2017/02/11/513089503/a-look-at-why-crime-pays-in-indian-politics

“Stunning volcano photos” from Iceland :

http://icelandmonitor.mbl.is/news/nature_and_travel/2017/02/07/four_of_iceland_s_main_volcanoes_all_preparing_for_/

This is the government inflicting max pain for minimum cuts in budget. Roads are always the reason for hiking taxes, but the money from the fuel taxes is not all used for the roads. Politicians are a very dishonest lot, wonder why we don’t trust them :

http://www.latimes.com/politics/la-pol-ca-will-kempton-california-roads-20170212-story.html

Too much debt and the oil industry is no longer producing relatively cheap oil, with no current replacement. Kunstler is not a Trump fan, and the EROEI arguments are not entirely solid because the technology of extraction improves, but you can’t discount his prediction of Trump being removed because of the crash and his attempts to deal with the consequences. OTOH, everyone who has predicted Trump’s downfall so far has been wrong. Among the many reasons, read the Michael Lewis article below :

http://kunstler.com/clusterfuck-nation/made-for-each-other/

Another ‘local control’ movement around the US, this eliminating freeways through large urban areas :

http://www.theamericanconservative.com/urbs/why-cities-are-demolishing-freeways/

The problem in that is that networks of highways are a system with emergent properties, and so it is very difficult to predict traffic patterns as a result of any change. It is the same issue as for IP networks, so has been very extensively studied and modeled. Google doesn’t give me a good link showing examples of that, you will have to take my word for it or do your own googling.

This is an excellent article by Michael Lewis on cognitive biases, in this case of MDs in ERs. (An aside : X-rays are used to diagnose a collapsed lung and rib fractures! How did they miss those?) In any case, Kahneman and other cognitive researchers find that people judge probability as ‘representative in my experience’, a powerful bias because it works most of the time. ‘Experience’ is ‘can remember it’, another factor producing the biases, but predictable and systematic mistakes. Medicine tries to be data-driven, management in corporations, generally not, in my experience :

http://nautil.us/issue/45/power/bias-in-the-er

Here is another use of cognitive science. Excellent analysis of techniques of distortion, but wrong on the fundamentals, e.g. who is the real climate expert vs the fake climate experts. That has been the problem all along, and there absolutely is no consensus among the genuine experts, and nobody who understands models takes them at all seriously as a prediction of the future of anything. There is cherry picking of evidence right there, because the serious scientists with negative evidence don’t take positions about what humans case, rather merely point to factors that make the model’s predictions unlikely to be correct. Look at his temp graph, it starts in 1970. No context, and if we had the same detail in a long enough time-line, perhaps we wouldn’t think this last period unusual. In fact, the earth has had periods above the max temps the AGW people predict, as well as very long periods in deep freeze.

Great propaganda, all true and completely wrong :

https://theconversation.com/what-do-gorilla-suits-and-blowfish-fallacies-have-to-do-with-climate-change-72560

The many effects from a border tax. In my opinion, taxes are taxes, all are subsidies in effect, all affect everything, all prices.  Our problems stem in large part from not knowing what things really cost, as well as the rising costs discussed yesterday. Trump should be fixing the core problems that produce the loss of jobs, all of which would reduce the fuzz. The Fed is the core fuzz-producer, it’s too-cheap cost of borrowing is the core of the rising costs. A trade war is the last thing the US needs, generally, making things worse is not the best path to making them better.

But politicians generally do that, because they can get the political support for something stupid much easier than for ‘the right thing’, even when it is known what the right thing is :

http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2017-02-13/biggest-case-wto-history-europe-prepares-legal-challenge-against-trump-border-tax

The more archaeology that is done in South America, the more sophisticated the civilizations are judged to be :

https://www.yahoo.com/news/hundreds-ancient-earthworks-resembling-stonehenge-200000000.html

Yes, it is hard to be a rational explainer of Trump, even with the argument of “Better than Clinton is a very low bar, given her pro-war record”, I have the same experience :

http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2017-02-13/bill-blain-trying-explain-trump-does-not-make-me-bad-person

George Webb’s story is that the Libyan oil extraction rights were sold, and the money went into the Clinton-CIA pockets, $30B. I don’t know how this relates to that story, but definitely more mafia activities extracting a nation’s wealth are revealed.

Years ago I said that the serious hunter would go hunting the poachers, not the animals being poached. Reliable Identification Friend or Foe would be necessary,. Otherwise, someone with a gun in a protected area == a target. Better make sure the IFF unit is working before you go hunting :

https://theconversation.com/indias-militant-rhino-protectors-are-challenging-traditional-views-of-how-conservation-works-72828

“The internet effect” is affecting the French election as it has the US and Brexit, it cuts the power of the legacy media to direct the debate :

http://www.aljazeera.com/programmes/listeningpost/2017/02/france-presidential-race-media-collide-170211104132779.html

England leads in secrecy laws :

https://www.theguardian.com/uk-news/2017/feb/12/uk-government-accused-full-frontal-attack-prison-whistleblowers-media-journalists

It will be interesting when France pursues its criminals into the US, using drones to execute the sentences. One foresees an international accord on dealing with the unintended side effects, the collateral damage, holding each other innocent in such. The rational will be something like “just a different form of lightening, don’t stand near lightening rods”, pretty much what what we tell all innocent victims of our drone strikes in the ME.

A few weeks ago, I read that the US NSC ordered assassinations in 135 countries in some recent year. Amazing fact :

https://theconversation.com/the-global-targeted-killings-bandwagon-whos-next-after-france-71840

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