That moment when The Dude realizes the only reason Lebowski would have hired him was if Lebowski didn’t want an answer.
The Dude: “No, I’m saying, if he knows I’m a fuck-up, why does he leave me in charge of getting his wife back? Because he doesn’t fucking want her back! He no longer digs her, it’s all a show!”
When you realize that no matter how pleasing your newest insight, every knowledgeable person understands the situation better than you do, nobody went out of their way to explain the key points, might have even mis-directed attention, and that that fact in itself is a prior to something important.
How could I not know that? is so often a meaningful prior probability.
Brains are so good at pattern-matching, once you have that in your head, you see Lebowski Enlightenments happening everywhere.
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https://firstlook.org/theintercept/2015/07/26/crucial-lesson-journalism-learned-subject/
thinkpatriot 
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