Lebowski Enlightenment #5

BE SKEPTICAL OF PREDICTIONS*

I think that I have not thought far in any direction without encountering a “How can I not know that, an intelligent member of a functioning civilization?” moment, adding the question “What is the flaw in the system that allows that?”, quickly followed by “Do you suppose the system is biased?”

So just now, I was thinking how to back up the thought “all men put their pants on one leg at a time” and thought about the memoirs that used to be done by servants.  Has no one codified their thoughts?  Is there no overview of those, the average opinion by different kinds of servants about different aspects of their master’s character, behavior? Of their families?  Estimates of the accuracy of the servant’s opinions, relative to other contemporary sources?  All I know about is Jeeves, probably not representative.

Should that not be an important part of civics classes, making sure all sides understand the realities of humans and their real limitations so that we may best work our way to positive sum solutions in the many conflicts sure to follow?

A system produced the centralized education system that decides what culture is, what needs to be passed on in the curriculum. We need to evaluate that system. Look, look! Another positive feedback system that gradually moves the culture toward rule by experts, socialism.

Have you ever seen that discussed as a general problem in the control of social systems?  Should it not have been part of any college curriculum, where intelligent people discuss the realities of controlling systems and the very many failure modes?    Failures to study would be a long list, just consider the many regulatory agencies and proportion of formerly-regulated-executives in the leadership of each.  Notice how far from the free market into crony capitalism each has moved, and how the government is an integral part of the ravening kleptocracy.

Business people surely understand, they work to avoid conflicts of interest in the leadership and ranks, unless dishonest, failures are rare so far as we see from the outside and thus noteworthy.  Why is it that only government and crony-capitalist institutions fall into this dysfunctional kind of control?  That their failures are so frequent as to no longer be newsworthy?

Into every educated brain should spring images and metaphors of parasites and ecosystems and energy flow and the impossibility of unregulated growth in finite environments, and how nature usually arranges those for populations that can’t manage their growth within constraints for themselves.  It is just a matter of time until the collapse or peasant revolt, whichever comes first.

Also, why do we not have modern version of such memoirs?  Do you think the use of NonDisclosure Statements is OK in restricting such information? Understanding, as I am sure you do, that the police and intelligence services are not so restricted, which thereby transfers power to those services?  All that was surely fully-discussed in the original debates, right?  Just one of those little side-effects of laws, which somehow keep adding up to kleptocracy.

If I was running a curriculum, I would have the kids around adults all the time, part of the gossip stream. You can’t live in a small town and think people are saints, a part of the growing-up curriculum schools and society have left out.  No wonder people behaved differently up to about 1900, they still understood leaders were not omniscient.  Chamberpots and outhouses and soiled underwear link us all at fundamental levels and change the way people see things, judge each other.

Looking at the array of our leaders, listening to them speak, I would have to say, we are not very good at selecting leaders. Distance and medium have allowed filtering and framing that have warped our judgment.  Not that I think people have been perfect at that, civilization improves only slowly, one person at a time, and much backsliding at every scale.

Also $ has changed everything. These are not new problems, civilizations have been handling big-new money since money. Those people bought those positions by being ahead of the money-raising game.  One sees bits of that in stories, but it isn’t the lead in every story about these ‘leaders’ as it should be.

Again, that leadership-by-money is completely normal, we ordinary folks are only surprised because we do not understand the system, and they clearly do not want us to understand the system.

The world has been on a rule-by-expert binge for 150 years, advisers in many classes rode along on the image of modernity and control that science and engineering had brought. It is time to realize the analytical tradition in its current forms cannot handle the external world well, explaining the widely-ignored fact that the failure rate of the world is very high. History, business, culture is a very long list of stupid moves by individual people and their advisers, who could have thought those actions were going to improve civilization?**

We got here despite history, because we 99% overcame the many effects of those very stupid actions our leaders have done repeatedly, every time overcoming warnings by trusted advisers.

History is not civilization rising so much as civilization recovering yet again, faltering its way to a slightly higher ridge before the next idiot ruler takes it low, poor and ignorant and plagued by barbarians.  That is the cycle of history we should focus on. That is the major risk to all of us, and exactly what is happening now.  We are governed on all sides with people who believe people are different ‘over there’, ‘that religion’, ‘in government’, ‘small town America’, ‘Calcutta slum’. I think you can only believe that 3 generations away from the chamberpot that tied us to the same concept of human.

Not many things can be predicted in both timing and certainty, but the US’s exit from the ME wars is 100% certain, the correlation of economic, social and political forces is now strongly against us***.  $1.3T in military spending per year is not sustainable, as the US will not be able to borrow money in the near future.  We are gaining nothing positive with continuing, yet the doubling-down continues.  Have you noticed that the entire Status Quo has not noticed?

How easy it would be to just stop the wars? There is no possible justification for the wars, the Israeli-NeoCon-militarists have proven throughout 14 years of war that they can’t predict anything, that nothing works in bringing peace.

So as a measure of the capability of our system of civilization to stop doing obviously counter-productive things, “stop the ME war!” is good.  Do you think the ME war will stop before or after the collapse of the military due to the collapse of the economy and deep devaluation of the dollar?  Will the last troops leave the last war under fire?

Clearly the ME wars will soon be stopped and the military budgets will be cut to perhaps 10% of current levels.  Weapons programs even smaller.

Have you seen thinking like that priced into military stocks?

A problem with shorting civilizations is finding a rock to stand on, a fulcrum for the many large and obvious levers.  If you knew where the smart money was headed, and the store of value they prefer, we would probably know more of our future.

I do not think that any side is mentally prepared for the coming conflicts.  As usual.  And nobody predicts conflicts among anyone who counts.  Ignoring all sides accumulating arms and ammunition, of course.  As usual.

Completely incapable of intelligent action to preserve its own existence, the entire Status Quo of the US of A will fail for their in-actions, their failure to move to wise justice.  We ordinary citizens will be very hurt also.

But I bet they can organize more false flags.  That is a basic gov function, only requires criminals.  Perhaps one should not short military stocks.  Intelligence agencies tend to be correct about their executive’s portfolios … And, on the other hand, I have always been surprised by the number of intelligence agency heads that are caught and executed as governments change.  Perhaps their normalcy bias compensators are no better than anyone else’s?

Did you notice that 100% of the intelligence agencies of history’s empires failed to provide the guidance that prevented the failure of the empire? Why do you think that was not emphasized in history class?

*Possibly you will not grasp the importance of this civilization-ending insight, that profound foresight and prognostication, even as profoundly insightful as mine, doesn’t work.  After you believe this, you will be a very skeptical person.

So notice how many very skeptical people there are around you, and ask WTF?  Did history change when I wasn’t looking, to a record of good judgment and rapid progress in wealth accumulation, no setbacks except from unexplored nature?  No?  When you understand that state of affairs, let me know the answer and we will make much $ together.

**The design of a government that will prevent craziness is being done by software and hardware designers, soon we will have trustable nets and be able to engage in trusting exchanges anonymously.  Government after adjusting to all of the ramifications of that will be very different.  ‘KickEnder‘ is one of the concepts.

***All produced in true Dissident-Contrarian Discordian (the only empirically-validated religion) fashion, by the  Israeli-neoCon contingent in world politics who have run a genuine, working, conspiracy over more than 50 years, thus forging their opposition.  When did the CIA find it necessary to invent the perjorative ‘conspiracy theory’?

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2 thoughts on “Lebowski Enlightenment #5

  1. When considering the waxing and waning of the power of empires it is interesting to consider, perhaps, power itself, never waxing and waning in toto, but slowly rolling around the world in a conservation of energy type fashion. Like a ball bearing searching for the next hole to occupy for x number of years/decades/centuries. In that manner, is it China where the ball bearing is headed now? Russia? Or is it currently but temporarily rimming through these regions’ holes and winding away to who knows where?

    Perhaps in the model, the ball bearing occasionally breaks apart into smaller bearings, becoming dispersed over time (e.g., the Dark Ages)

    Did you know that China has bought (or retained) the equivalent of 100% of the world’s mine output of gold over recent years?

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    1. ‘Power’ is unambiguous in physics, but certainly not social science, so I think
      https://thinkpatriot.wordpress.com/2015/10/02/warning-ideas-are-dangerous/

      When one is extraordinarily careful with terms and analysis and hard evidence, it still doesn’t seem to work well.

      So ‘law of conservation of political power’ isn’t testable, imho. Also, I should have put https://duckduckgo.com/?q=david+hackett+fischer+historians+fallacies&ia=products into that post, so many ways to go wrong with historical data, it has to be worse in real-time.

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