Saker’s view is that the US Empire is in retreat. This is a short-term view, whereas Zeihan’s view is long-term. Also very flawed, assuming that air craft carriers were really power instead of expensive targets.
Yes, I think that is the proper synthesis. We can be optimistic about the US in the long-term, and I always have been. We have solid citizens, this is a very productive and civilized country. OTOH, getting past the horrible effects of our oligarchy and empire is not going to be fun :
The US has long done drugs for arms deals. This is the case of Pepsi Cola, at one time the 6th largest navy in the world. Amazing story, the history of the world is enabled by drugs, a universal need in all societies, always a huge money maker, always suppressed by authorities and therefore, … And that works from drugs so mild as a Pepsi.
Theme and variations folks, that is us. In my humblest opinion, we individuals need a new meta level, known by less scientific minds as the next level of consciousness. No kidding, how the fuck can it be considered sane to spend so much on armaments. How can it not be clear that a military is a danger to the country that builds it? We are one inbred species made up of individuals so very intelligent, very good senses so good at seeing differences, not quite yet wise enough to acknowledge that power games are counter-productive, even when the great powers aren’t screwing their citizens. And that we are all citizens of one world, none better than others, however poor.
However you want to say it, however you conceptualize it, this organization of society we have historied ourselves into is not even close to optimal in any dimension of goodness for humanity as a whole, for the rapid development of our civilization. I am amazed at, but can’t be proud of the fact that our country spends so much on its military and uses it so stupidly :
The evidence of radiation causing cancer continues to grow, despite little research budget and coverups of the results of the little that is done :
The neural basis for the Flynn Effect. This looks at one aspect of the environment, back and forth conversation, and finds conversation changes brain structure. Flynn Effect guarantees that when they look at the sizes of the information flows in the child’s environment and the sophistication of the concepts and depth of explanations, they will find changes in brain structures.
The Flynn Effect is why there cannot be a culturally-independent IQ test :
George Webb’s research team, fusion of so many information sources, analysis and commentary is leading to the conclusion that the CIA has infiltrated many police departments in the US and funds snipers to produce political effect. We don’t know how many of the massacres since 9/11 were real, but very likely the ones that were were funded by the CIA.
Lovely that George got into this because Andy McCabe targeted him when George was protesting the 85th fusion center.
Fusion centers are the first target for patriots, SWAT team members are the probable bad guys now and in the future. But we already knew that :
Another element of the CIA’s takeover of the US :
Two studies reaching opposite conclusions. I don’t have the knowledge to judge further. However, sex and sexual selection evolved specifically to allow animals to mix their immune system genes, because the greatest cause of death in all populations of animals is disease and parasites. Single-cell organisms and viruses evolve many times faster than multi-cellular animals. Thus, populations need to change their defenses continuously. Mixing immune system genes is how they do that. Hard to believe they didn’t understand this. :
Serious racial and religious bigotry is not a significant factor in most of the nations of the world, unless, as with Svoboda in Ukraine and the various Muslim extremists in the ME, the US has intentionally supported an extremist group :
CounterPunch publishes Stasis Quo articles. This ignores the fact that ISIS was created, funded, trained, equipped and supported by Israel, the US, Saudi Arabia. It also assumes that Trump can’t do anything for intelligent reasons, and that his generals, which the article criticizes for not winning wars, are better judges than Trump of the situation and appropriate moves.
Ways of life we have forgotten. My parent’s stories of their lives, stories I heard from my grandparents are modern versions of that set of close relationships in a small town or on a farm. My life growing up on farms and in small towns had much more family than my son’s life :
I had dinner with relatives last evening, heard an interesting story. This guy skis with people far above our middle-class status, told me a story of a woman who was laughing at people being concerned about mere 100s of $1000s. “Does she have to practice to be such an asshole?” I asked. “No, it is just the way she is. People put up with it because she has inherited money, is part of the group” was the reply.
“She isn’t old money, they train their children better” I told him. Yes, her father made the $. Interesting dynamic, the new money so big compared to old money, as sure of themselves as the privileged always are, but not enough sense to control their image. Isn’t this a lot like the 1880s when the first wave of backlash against the post-civil war oligarchs who over-reached and ultimately caused the anti-trust laws and then the New Deal. Here we go again, best case.
Peter Zeihan is brilliant. Very different view of the world than I had understood. His statement that “Donald Trump has appeared in 2 softcore porn videos” is BS. How the video of Trump was allowed to be include in Playboy’s softporn films is a good question, but very different than the accusation.
Can’t disagree with much, except his view of shale prices. I see an awful lot of experts saying the industry can’t exist without continuous drilling, and they systematically over-estimate their production per well. And his view of the US government agencies and presidents that ignores human foibles, cabals, institutional competition, criminal rings, …
Right. US currency exchange controls will change everything. No, no, no, that alone changes the system to one different than he assumes. Ditto the Chinese-Russian Silk Road, … There are dozens of trends that could change things on a geopolitical scale. Including, insane as it sounds, everyone deciding that shooting is a bad idea.
I have to say I like his version of the US’s immediate future better than the one I haven’t adjusted to his views, that the US has immense chaos in its immediate future, perhaps involving a shooting revolution.
But, in all of this, Zeitan assumes that states are looking out for #1, basically driven by needs of the wealthy in their country resulting in economic growth and expansion, good for the peasantry. Given how often the very wealthy are also very criminal, I question his assumption. Seems to me, many of the best times in history for ordinary people were bad times for the nobility, the inherited wealthy. Those were all frontiers of some kind up until modern understandings of Democrracy and Republics.
‘High level’ == too little detail to accurately match to the reality you live within. Horoscopes, Chinese fortune cookies. ‘Geopolitical’ explanations are the same, I think. How many contrary trends could the many different disciplines he touches on provide?
OTOH, the guy correlates a lot of data, interesting trends and projections :
Anyone who invests in this scheme deserves to lose their money :
Tucker Carlson takes on the propaganda by showing their talking points every day. I must be centrally directed. He is a very good mind. Yes, the D’s are the party of the Stasis Quo :
Jimmy Dore is also great at that, I linked to this a month or so ago :
George Webb is leading a very large group of investigators, a modern editor of researchers. It is the micro-scale of some of the the vast criminal mafias’ operation :
Good for Erdogan. Bolton is an Israeli-Neocon, the opposite of Trump’s promises :
It is good to be reminded that there are rational professors. David Gelernter is one of them. “Jews are over-represented in academia, have a bad effect on American culture”. Gelernter’s “20 ideas” at the end of this are wonderful, e.g. “Artificial Intelligence is going nowhere until we have mastered Artificial Emotion”. The Generalissimo thought so also :
They find the logic too convincing: To support Trump is to be déclassé, and to be inferior socially is to be inferior intellectually. David Gelernter cannot be an intellectual if he has the wrong politics, and the only way he could support or work with Donald Trump is by being anti-intellectual.
I watched a bit of “Orange is the New Black” today, now Youtue gives me Ginger Lynn’s problems with our oh-so-honest Federal Prosecutors. The algorithm to maximize ad revenue conflicts with their political agenda :
Humans are genetically less diverse than our ape sibling species because of over-expressed genes controlling transposons. We are a purer race than fellow apes, and likely have far more genetic illnesses than other ape lineages :
I interpret this as evolution to evolve :
Watched this again following that. Amazing ability to see all of the excitatory and inhibitory spines on one neuron in tissue cultures. Has anyone tested the knock-out mice behaviorally? :
Interesting stories :
People think about things :
Yes, the price of cannabis is falling rapidly, the quality is improving also. What I predicted 2.5 years ago. Contrary to the pot growers who disagreed with me, and forgot that extracts don’t care about indoor vs outdoor. It isn’t an accident that extracts are improving faster than buds or strains :
Teachers are not at all necessary until perhaps some time in college, although we haven’t done those experiments yet :
I think that all of us in our family are careful about sharing online info, including never logging into Youtube. I make sure my browser is giving the servers false and varying information and switch between different browsers. Youtube can’t tell who is who, thus gives us all a very wide range of choices of things we might watch, the union of me, my wife, our son and his gf’s choices. Don’t know quite where this came from, but it certainly has expanded my view of the information exchanges going on in our new culture. ‘Dear Abbie’ has competition :
Left, center or right, few politicians support reducing the number of people in prison :
Progress in measuring intelligent behavior of wild animal populations. Intelligence helps dealing with their environments, general intelligence rather than modules for specific behaviors. I started reading the Hutchins book this AM :
History of the 2nd Amendment. As always, the English organized the opposition that supported independence by attempting to control the colonies. The 2nd Amendment was to prevent tyranny, all governments eventually enslave their citizens. The Bill of Righs acknowledges rights of natural law, rights inherent in every person’s being, and serve to restrict government’s infringement of those inherent rights.
A further thought on the Scahill video yesterday. The NRA is entirely DC establishment, has written all of the gun control laws. That is why the 2nd Amendment Foundation, Jews for the Preservation of Firearms Ownership, Gun Owners of America, National Association for Gun Rights, and Constitutional Rights PAC exist. 2nd Amendment Foundation and GOA have pushed all of the court cases that have rolled back city, state and federal infringements of the 2nd Amendement :
Shutdowns show volunteers can keep thing running, providing there is funding :
John Helmer is a good journalist. If he has biases, I don’t see them, I read his site routinely. Helmer’s views are inside-Russia detailed renderings consistent with what others whose opinions I respect see from the outside. Also, the opinions of some of my relatives, some of whom work in Russia. I liked the quotes he selected for his book’s back page, the many ridiculous criticisms of him over the years :
Helmer’s version of the MH17 also fixes the blame on the Kiev regime. The BUK missile parts must have been planted, as there does not seem to be evidence for a BUK having been fired or BUK shrapnel having damaged the airplane :
In a complex system, you can’t do just one thing. Here restoration of native plants from nurseries spreads fungi most resistent to fungicides, thus net-killing native plants. Seems like the kind of simple first-order complication that the systems-thinking eco-engineers would have thought of, had they really understood the systems they were trying to restore :
It isn’t that any one of these possible natural catastrophies is so probable, rather that we have more than a few big enough to affect a substantial part of the US economy :
Education should evolve more. This is a great meme to add to the math program :
Lots of stuff :
This is an interesting line of attack on guns, attributing to the founders of the nation motives of people generations after them. However, any black, brown, gay, … person who shows up at a gun range is treated very well, there are lots of online testimony to that effect, including Youtube. Ordinary Americans do NOT believe in racial or any other oppression, whatever motives we may attribute to the Founding Fathers. Many of us believe the 2nd Amendment is crucial. Trying to take America’s guns away will produce a revolution, immediately :
George Webb is the most important person in the world just now. What a team of researchers he represents and leads so very well! As with every one of the big stories in the last year, Whelan goes back 2 generations, and the story isn’t at all what the legacy media represents.
Whelan was one of the people in the early days of the Iraqi insurgency, where 2K AK47s and 100 Marine radios were delivered to them. He ties to a bunch of the security operations people, the Las Vegas massacre, many of the other sniper massacres. The story being outlined is that our own Deep Black Swamp intentionally makes wars continue forever while they rob the world blind and import Russian snipers to do the massacres for their political impact.
A major change is that now the NYTimes is now only a few days behind George, on the initial, superficial stuff. They won’t ever get to the meat of it, it would make their patrons, the CIA and oligarchy, look bad.
You could get the impression that Putin doesn’t like the US Deep Black Swamp and wants the evidence out in public. Trump will benefit whether he wants it or not, but Putin is indeed influencing US politics now.
Good for Putin :
Trump is such a disappointment. CIA still imports the great majority of the drugs killing people, leaders in Congress directly benefit. Clinton crime cabal has not been charged with anything despite such obvious and serious crimes, national and international.
Spy rings in congress, … all ignored because the Deep Black Swamp has largely controlled the narrative via useful idiot SJWs and propaganda such as Meuller’s probe and the constant “Russia did it” despite no evidence at all.
Reality is a great teacher, so I don’t expect these trends to last. But, Trump will be labeled with the great crash that is likely happening, the global financial-economic system is very unstable, but political effects can’t be predicted so easily.
Anyway, all Trump has to do is declassify government documents, everything gets cleared up quickly. Why that has not happened I have no idea. The excuse is that Trump has surrounded himself with Bush’s people, Israeli-Neocons, MIC and Wall Street oligarchs. True, he is in the position of fixing the airliner while it is in flight.
Los Angeles County has 112% more registered voters than voting age population. California has 101% more registered voters than voting age population. Hillary Clinton did not win the popular vote :
Open source intelligence. I applaud his goal of an open source database of all of the military installations in the world.
This has a different take on the downing of MH17 than I thought, blaming it on the pro-Russian rebels. The best information I thought I knew was that Holland was part of the coverup, the Ukrainians shot it down. I just linked to that article in the last few months :
Yes, and I trust Washington’s blog and the Russians’ evidence, plus the fact that no one has produced any eyewitness of any missile being fired. At least not so far as I know, and those missiles have enormous plumes of smoke. People saw the plane fall, people saw jets appearing to attack it, but they didn’t see a missile. Also, all of the Ukrainian radars were suspiciously down that night. That is memory, so check yourself, but this guy has accepted the government’s story that it was a BUK, and that particular BUK under control of rebels, and the reality of messages by operators.
It takes more than that to prove our government’s case, and, having just re-read this, yes, the Ukrainians shot down MH17, and likely the CIA oversaw the operation to make the Russians look bad, to justify more arms sales and more pillaging of the Ukraine :
Israel is way out of the bounds of civilization. This is not legitimate, and Israel is creating its opposition by offensive operation. Hubris does that to a country, person, corporation.
I think our Deep Black Swamp is going to regret their meme of ‘an outside nation is influencing our political system’ :
Another hint of the massive corruption in our government :
Real history, including cannabis as a major component of all civilizations :
Something for people to grasp when they propose civil war. Shooting people is a really bad idea, terrible side-effects, whereas sabotage not so much. I read, and probably linked to, a similar story in Romania which lasted until 1953 or so. That one was helped by the CIA, etc., but probably it was Philby who betrayed them all, 60K or so dead as a result :
Peter Zeihan lays out the US’s major advantages and China’s major disadvantages. He thinks that the US, Japan, Argentina, France and Turkey will be winners. China, Germany will have major problems :
When Paul Krugman catches on to the fact that the US is an oligarchy, ‘patrimonial capitalism’, the case is beyond proven :
The relative prices of processors+storage vs communications bandwidth and latency determine the economic tradeoffs, thus the switches of centralized servers vs distributed processing systems. The breakthrough needed is methods of combining individual machine’s learning to make it available to others. If it is merely equivalent to human’s learning and teaching, machines have no particular edge over humans. The Generalissimo was prescient, as usual :
Total BS, intentional conflation of anti-establishment Constitutional Conservatives, Libertarians and other anti-war groups with Nazis. I stopped reading at “He is the personification of his supporters’ grievances. He is to his political base what Hitler was to many Germans, or Mussolini to Italians—the living embodiment of the nation.”
I don’t know anyone who thinks that Trump is the living embodiment of the nation. Most Trump supporters think that we had no choice, that Trump is much better than Hillary would have been, a very low bar. Many of us like his combative style. Nearly everyone laments that he has not done a better job of opposing the Deep Black Swamp :
Problems of translations make it difficult to know what color ancient Greeks were. Are there no ancient skeletons to provide DNA? How can it be that we know Neanderthal’s hair color, but not the Greeks? 5 genes control 90% of skin color, and the genetics of Greeks today is similar to their genetics in Minoan times :
Talking with a fellow engineer and long-time friend just now, he said there is a new neural network ‘AI’ technology that is supposed to be much faster. Excellent, but neural networks must be many orders of magnitude larger before they can reach the level of a chimp
Putin is the world’s foremost statesman, responsible for most of the few positive trends in the world, foremost of which are winning in Syria and therefore the political changes that elected trump. Xi responsible for a few more, the Silk Road project that will improve the economy throughout central Asia. I think Russia’s position is much stronger than China’s however. Even with sanctions, Russia’s major economic, social and political problems are behind it. I think the US’s China’s are ahead :
If the ‘conservatives’ could see the intelligent aspects of the ‘progressives’, the brand would sell better. Fire and brimstone combined with strict sexual abstinence is not winning. Sex positive culture of people whose touchstone is reality and individual honesty and integrity seems an alternative we could all live with. I think it is the culturally conservative model, the one before Paul screwed things up with his ideology :
This is an excellent analysis of the ‘white privilege’ our social liberals talk about, fits with my estimate of what my white privilege has done for me in my life, which I copied from the blog of a couple months ago :
Thinking about this, I have decided that the extent of my ‘white privilege’ is that it removes any excuses for my failures. I have been a consultant most of my career, so have had lots of interviews. I am terrible at interviews, thinking about the jobs I have failed to win because I just hadn’t thought about some bit of technology for a while and am not good at selling myself or even explaining things without some preparation is painful. Often it all comes back on the drive back home from the interview.
If I had an excuse, e.g. being part of any ethnic group other than 1/4 Amish that nobody can detect through my whiteness, I could easily attribute some of my failures to prejudice. I can’t, it is all my failures and the stupidity of interviewers. That is my advantage in life relative to racial and ethnic groups, nothing more.
Cameras are ubiquitous, videos can be modified, and privacy evaporates. If we do not establish that everyone owns their data and faking videos with images of real people is a violation of their ownership and justice demands real punishment, then we need to accept that these fake videos will change society in very fundamental ways. For instance, if it is not possible to prove whether you did or did not engage in a mini-orgy, the barriers to ‘why not’ are lowered. You can always deny the video evidence. So long as you left your phone at home and eliminated the metadata that puts you in a particular location, you can be believed along with the rest of the innocent. Except that the suspicion will never go away, and neither will the images.
I don’t have the imagination to think what changes might result in our social behaviors. Who could have imagined how fast #MeToo resulted in male managers never being alone with a woman in a business setting, fewer and fewer social settings also.
Will we now record our life in self defense? All sexual encounters so we can prove they weren’t violent or whatever is out of favor, blackmailable?
And precisely how will your records be more real than the other versions? You will need to have them tagged with hashes signed by certificate authorities, … The network traffic to do that is enough metadata to be the same as opening your life to the authorities. But you would have no choice. To defend against fakes, your record would need to include video of every single second of every day. Without the timestamps and signed hashes, even if you are so honorable as to never edit your record to remove stupidities, nobody should believe your videos either. After all, who better to fake videos of you in you natural environment?
This is a very general tool for making the imaginary seem very real and convincing. General tools like that are as powerful as the imaginations of the people wielding them, and only tempered by their ethics.
I predict that we will find these early days of merely embarrassing people to be innocent compared to what comes after, that stuff I can’t imagine.
Probably time to get excited about this, seems to me. How does a society defend itself against widespread fake videos and cameras everywhere? What does the nightly news mean in that world? :
Hard to believe signals intelligence in the military, etc. hadn’t figured all this out, but the story of the grammar school kids and a couple of teachers doing providing the first public info on USSR’s spy program launch sites and such is a good story, must mean something. Certainly is an early example of citizen science and great pedagogy. A teacher like that would change any kid’s life who allowed it :
This is very big. Iraq is an ally, but here is showing the US that it should leave the ME :
No, the Russia changed the election story was not invented to excuse the loss by Clinton. It was invented because she lost, and now the problem was to prevent investigations of their crimes. Mueller and RussiaGate is the cover operation, the distraction for voters and additional constraints on Trump, e.g. Trump can’t declassify papers for fear of ‘obstructing justice’.
OK, Hersch’s story makes clear that the media have never been objective, have always self-censored to protect the rich and powerful. Major difference in the modern world is that the rich and powerful control so much of the world :
George Webb is still amazing. I haven’t kept up. As usual, today is a wealth of detail of their investigations and the many threads that are fitting with each other to make a big picture of enormous corruption in our society. More evidence that the DNC is a wholly-owned subsidiary of the Deep Black Swamp.
So the investigation into DOJ corruption just ends, no result, no massive release of evidence and no prosecutions. Republicans are failing their last chance for reform, which guarantees a shooting revolution in the near future :
Quality Assurance is the discipline that monitors whether an organization’s operations can and do produce correct results. In serious companies, they have the power to stop any process until problems are fixed. In many factories, any worker on the assembly line can stop the line to prevent producing flawed products. There are international certifications for QA processes in manufacturing and services. Why not hospitals?
Some of the problems described in this article are horrifying, mind boggling :
We need to restore original habitats, we have caused the erosions and barren landscapes. BLM and Forest Service are lousy conservators of our country, have too many other goals, including selling mineral rights to foreigners :
I read things like this, which describes very deep connections between physical reality, prime numbers, Zeta function, … and have no idea what that means. Many minds postulate a God that created all of this, not testable and so not a scientific explanation within current science, but you never know.
This is related to the problem of whether mathematics is discovered, meaning it exists outside of human minds as is physical reality, or invented, meaning the edifice of mathematics is entirely created by human minds, and the correspondence between math and physical reality is entirely due to the selection of problems and filtering of possible answers.
Discovering new deep correspondences between mathematics and physical reality argue for mathematics being discovered. I think the many previously found deep connections within mathematics itself argue ditto. Talking with my son just now, he said he thought encountering aliens will answer the question. If they have a recognizable math, mathematics is a real property of the external world entity waiting to be discovered. An attribute, much like Bejian’s constructal law of thermodynamics which is so connected to evolution, also a basic attribute of that external world.
This math-physics correspondence is almost a convincing argument by design, even overpowering my counter-example of sticky shit and hairy asses. It certainly makes clear that humans do not have a level of explanation that produces both the math relationships and the physical reality. That empty foundation in the stack of explanations explains my bogglement, I hope :
I consider myself a classical liberal, but find myself agreeing with much of many political thinkers. Didn’t know Roger Scruton, but this guy thinks clearly and expresses himself elegantly.
However, the idea that repression of sexual desire is necessary for maintenance of a society is bunk. I need to check, but I bet the Romans were not a sexually repressed people even in their early days. And even then, marriage was the understood requirement if the girl got pregnant.
No, raise your children to be responsible, honest, to have integrity, and the sex will take care of itself. As for whether a society can allow sex to be sold, be serious, every one has. It may not be open, it may not be widely available, but it exists.
The question is not ‘whether’, the question is what conditions can allow the sale of sex to be consistent with a stable civilization, meaning a civilization of free people living in voluntary association.
The Romans knew all of this, the Greeks practiced a version. The Trojans integrated man-boy love into their society and did rather well as nation-states go, they had a good run in history, left their name in the history books, admired people they are. (No, I am not advocating any such thing, I am merely using it as an example that outside-of-marriage sexual practices are fairly innocent in determining a culture’s future. From the experiences of people I have talked to, ditto for individuals in this culture.)
The Stoics seem to me to have the right idea. You have to teach children, to give them the experiences needed to grow up be mensch. Do that right, life’s temptations will take care of themselves. Do it wrong, and massive sexual repression will not save your society.
We gun-proofed our child with Eddie Eagle and lots of conversation, we drug-proofed our child with Up in Smoke and lots of conversation. I hope the internet sex-proofed him, because we weren’t smart enough to do that, parents in US culture hide sex from their children. I need to think about how you sex-proof your child, another thing to research :
Clever thought I ran across today was “No system can be so perfect that men need not be good.” Yes, fewer rules, more integrity, more transparency. Our rule-based system has not scaled.
Lots of writing today, not much profound, but thoughts on many topics. Don’t waste your time unless you know you like mental midget meandering on a big landscape. This is not a waste of my time, I find it takes many runs through a line of thought to find all of the mental links that illuminate it and connect to other lines of thought. Those make the meaning and separate simplistic thinking from more advanced kinds of confusions. Messy process.
Another major assumption of human genomics bites the dust. Throw out anything derived from the assumption that only females provide mitochondria to offspring, e.g. mitochrondrial Eve may well have been Mitochondrial Adam and all genetic models, e.g. population structures and inheritance :
As a result of the video on cocaine and nicotine in mummies, I have found and read discussions of drugs in other cultures. Wine technology was strongly associated with the earliest cultures and was a large part of the early trade. Civilizations began as drug producers and sellers. Standard reasons, high value, not widely available, makes people feel good, increases social interactions, an aphrodisiac.
Blue Lotus was a favorite in the old days. One could easily conclude that all cultures have used a wide variety of psychoactives, many with effects of an aphrodisiac. Who would have guessed? :
George Webb is one of the most admirable people on the planet, so far as I know, and I check out a lot of people directly and vastly more indirectly every year. I work at this.
The number and depth of connections that George can maintain in working memory is awesome to behold. I have long thought that the Continuity of Government people are the big danger to civilian government, this video discusses them again.
Webb is not omniscient, has not always been correct in his hypotheses, but at least he always tells you when he is ahead of his verified sources and uses working hypotheses to move the investigation ever-deeper. Every discussion points to areas where we need to find more information, here are the terms for people to search.
Watch that all the way through to see what an open source intelligence project in the world of the internet can produce, and think how far the NYTimes is behind that growing set of links and leaks and communications that will ultimately be revealed, if only a piece at a time.
Webb’s group’s of online researchers output is the equivalent of several long books by now. Everything based in gov reports, FOIAs accumulating, serious publications, books, papers, … Nothing is made up except for things George puts together as working hypothesis.
Some of George’s comments today show how deep are his sources, mentions of having interviewed several people associated with the generals.
George is a year ahead of the NYTimes, probably ahead of any government investigation because agencies and cabals don’t share data very well if it implicates anyone, so the only possible path of putting it together is via someone like George being an open source fusion center. Interesting dynamic, another one of the changes in power structures that the internet is producing.
By this point, George has named a lot of names and agencies and their role in the various kinds of corruption. Lately the Continuity of Government people have been connected to the Iran Nuclear deal, part of Uranium One in many links. In this view, the Clintons were no official cover operatives who did well. NOCs get to skim the take, and do very well financially, which, along with the great cover so there is no legal risk, is why we have so many NOCs in American life.
An unknown amount of our government’s activity is done outside of the chain of command. That is the same as a mafia, every time. These people have power, and are therefore not of sound mind. We need to take that power from them.
George’s group of researchers is winning because no intelligence agency can control the metadata. Metadata the data collected on every transaction, every time someone passes a security camera. Metadata is built into the fabric of civilization, part of the environment, unchangable by mere intelligence agencies. As more and more of life is recorded, the proportion of metadata with which to triangulate items in explanations so as to estimate truth is much enhanced. Many ways of checking a fact mean it is a lot harder for the people to lie and get away with it. Yes, the Deep Black Swamp controls legacy media, but in many important ways, transparency is happening.
So our Deep State’s problem is only going to get worse, as I have long predicted. The information is out there, there are many more people emulating George Webb or one of the other major researchers. Cumulatively, along with all the people following these threads on twitter, youtube and other forums, there are a lot of facts for the growing number of minds searching the web and public data stores to connect to things they personally know about. And behind George are the historians and policy people who write books, springboarding off of individual lines of evidence George’s people have uncovered.
Mining metadata is a growth industry. The first phase was NSA and CIA analysts pushing ‘collect it all’, followed by stupidly funding Google to index what they had no need of collecting because it was already public. The the browser became the universal interface to data and applications, huge amounts of data on everything is exposed, and institutions and ruling class individuals are finding that metadata works well for the rest of us in our own triangulations.
Seems to me that the political realignment happening is society sorting itself into two major classes : those who have been compromised by money, power or sin, a group including many of the people who have clearances in our governments and contractors, as well as the many people dependent upon government, vs those who have not been detected sinning enough to blackmail into a more serious crime or succeeded to an extent where anyone would need to care about our opinions. ‘Deplorable losers’ Hillary called us.
The shrinking 3rd group is the moderate middle, supporters of the Stasis Quo. US middle class numbers are fading. Working class loyalties to the Democratic Party are fading. The great majority of people in the military and police are patriotic, law-abiding citizens, mostly voting Republican and for peace. That makes destabilizing this society a much harder problem. Has a country so well-armed ever been destabilized? Don’t know of any.
Our opinions are beginning to make a difference, thanks to the internet. I think truth is breaking out all over and there is a growing chance that Trump will be the president that breaks the Deep State, brings everyone in government and contractors under the chain of command and within the laws and the Constitution. That is hope, there are no prosecutions of any significant figure in obvious criminal organizations and few credible reports of serious investigations.
There is no possible way trafficking of any kind can be compliant with the plain text of the law and the US Constitution. A legislature cannot pass a law making it legal for the government agents to defraud taxpayers is the first obvious point. They can’t put Americans at risk to harm without notice, much less make a profit at it. The mafias inside our government are the danger to the citizens of the US, far beyond any risk from external powers.
Mafias have more control in more primitive societies, less metadata means more secrecy. Keep that bit of difference in preferences for futures in mind as we deal with these fellow humans we have allowed to become intoxicated with power. We should not do that to our fellow humans, it isn’t kind to them and it is very dangerous to the rest of us.
Breaking the mafias is the #1 goal for a civilized mind, seems to me. We know the mafia’s and sympathizers’ members because they oppose exposing information. Edward Snowden is a hero, anyone who says otherwise is with the mafia. Generalize.
This is George Nader who George discusses near the end of that video :
A rational argument, assuming a welfare state. But assuming a welfare state is not rational, far too many failure modes and thus not sustainable, with nasty social consequences as they fail. 65% taxes means it would have been more effective to maintain more stay-at-home parents and retired people involved in local communities and running charities, which would also have enhanced the rate of social evolution instead of freezing it :
This is the best kind of charity, a real hope for people and a mechanism to turn this system to a sustainable future :
A thought I just re-had is that drugs, alcohol, … are more a symptom of social and economic problems than a cause. Gov treats them as a cause because it can plausibly do that, but can’t deal with the underlying issues.
Random rethinking and re-expressing the thought. I find it unlikely that Raven’s Progessive Matrices or any other paper and pencil test could find all of the uncorrelated, thus independent, measurable dimensions of intelligence. Even discussions by academics who should know better think IQ measures intelligence, rather than merely one aspect of intelligence in one culture. Flynn Effect is a real thing, why can nobody crank that into their thinking. Especially since it means any attempt to say that one race is smarter than another is bogus, there cannot be a culture-free intelligence test.
When Charles Murray published “The Bell Curve” it met with a storm of academic criticism, much legit. I don’t see that for the more recent people pushing the same story, that IQ is intelligence, rather than IQ is one measure of the dimensions of intelligence among many, a measure that predicts academic success well and life success much less well.
At the same time, I believe much of the IQ data, intelligence is important, it means you make more correct decisions. I believe there are genes that make it more probable that you will, in your environment, be more intelligent with one allele than another. No doubt some of these alleles will be more frequent in some populations than others. But even if we had identified every such gene and its exact function, we can’t measure enough dimensions of intelligence to have the context to even begin understanding the optimizations that natural selection makes wrt those genes. Much less beginning a program to enhance the various kinds of intelligence, much less a program to enhance the effectiveness of including different kinds of intelligence on different kinds of teams.
At the same time, Flynn says that being outside of your society’s standard information flows will produce a lower IQ score, so any deviation from social conformity has a risk of starting a positive-feedback loop producing more failures and lower IQ.
All evil requires people believing without evidence. We cannot permit untruths in our social sphere, they produce evil every time. Another reason we cannot allow our government to have secrets. If secrets, there can be no effective watchman, truth is hidden. IGs have not done their jobs, the cases of 93 whistleblowers George Webb has discussed are very good measures of that.
A reason I think that much philosophy is bunk is revealed in this Simone de Beauvoir quote “existence precedes essence”. Obviously true by definition, perhaps something clever to say in a salon debate, but how does a statement like that add meaning to biology or help me make any decision?
The Stoics had a goal for their philosophy, establishing a framework so that good people could know how to make their children’s world a better place. They dealt with reality. Humans are biological, of course they have a nature, a set of characteristics of the species, every species does, although we find amazing variability depending on their environment. Of course those characteristics limit possibilities and interests. Of course environments have a major effect in individual’s characteristics, what else is culture?. Only philosophers and psychologists could deny the obvious :
Very encouraging news from Syria following Trump’s excellent decision to remove US troops. It is excellent that Bolton is tagged with the mistake to keep them there for so long. Yes, I feel for the Kurds, yes we used them. But I don’t feel for them any more than the rest of the couple of million people who have been killed as a result of the US’s fighting Israel’s wars, and I know that nobody knows how to fix this kind of problem. Israel was created to do that, as an example of how easily things go wrong :
Pig in the Python is a book that talked about the consequences of the Baby Boom generation. 93 million Americans, nearly 30% of the total, were born 1945-1965. This discusses how that produces a different personality and society. Add to that the fact that that extended Boomer generation owns or controls so much of America, they will of course be blamed for the social and economic disasters happening to us. Good, Boomers finished abandoning the Constitution, a project started by FDR’s ‘progressives’, the social justice warrior activist wing which evolved from the Puritans :
A documentary on Wittgenstein. Why can we state all propositions in the natural sciences, but nothing about what is important in philosophy? What is the qualitative difference between them that imposes that condition? I may not ever finish this, pure mentation doesn’t get very far, seems to me.
Good to know that even Wittgenstein wished for more intelligence. It confirms my thought that you can’t ever have too much intelligence. His letters describing his ups and downs of progress in thinking through problems seem like mine at my level, and Wittgenstein also says that working through combinations of ideas takes a long time. I see that an intelligent man, not just a wise man, is someone who agrees with me.
The problem for philosophy is how a mind develops in a brain developing in a body developing in a culture developing in a civilization. That is one of the ideas I am trying to think through lately.
To provide a clear view of my competence to do that, I will recount my understanding of philosophical topics. First, I have a vague idea that much philosophy was obsoleted by ‘the map is not the territory’ Korzybski. Maps and territories have formal relationships. Philosophical inquiry at the Russell and Wittgenstein level is maybe discussing categories of maps, territories and relationships but it is outside of my scope.
Types of philosophy I think I can name are:
A) moral-religious about which I know little.
B) Cantor, Russel and Whitehead, the French academy various attempts to put one solid foundation under mathematics and logic about which I know even less. Maybe I only need know Godel blew that idea out of the water.
C) Epistemology, rules of evidence for interpreting external reality, a long time background interest of mine, tho I am no philosopher. But to summarize, you need to be able to measure things, all measurements have error bars, the nature of reality changes at the quantuum level, chaos reigns at every level. ‘Reality’ is sort-of-shared maps in the fallible minds of humans, not territory in reality. People are not rigorous in separating those in their thinking, need to be. Reasoning is making analogies, a philosophically suspect operation, a different class of mental thing than objects, quantities being thought about. That sort-of ties into the foundations of math and logic, maybe.
D) Cognitive theory, bleeding over into AI and psychology and neuroscience. Early, early days here. I think there is very little theory to provide any framework for even the research program that might provide a genuine human-scale intelligence, much less one we could trust.
Stoicism is in the zeitgeist these days.
That the result of long work as a generalist and software engineer. Success in reorganizing philosophy on a firmer foundation is assured, obviously.
I think the issue of trust will be much excitement in the process of bringing genuine artificial intelligences into our lives.. Give an entity the intelligence to deal with real-world problems, access to the information necessary to solve them, volition enough to pursue the goal, and power enough to deal with assigned problems, you have something that can work against your interests. Somewhere I read that 25% of people working are watching the other 75%. Yes, if have a human in a position with that description, we know we have to watch them carefully :
I didn’t read much of this. Indeed, the financial system does not make sense in historical terms and we will be re-learning what that means over the next few years :
I want to assure you that all the vape shop employees I have encountered are more sensible than this one. I discuss Trump with the people at the one I buy from, no problem, and this is a very progressive leftish area. I think vape shop people are standard small business people with a special dislike of government, especially the new nanny variety.
I don’t know enough about social contagions to compare this to previous episodes in our history, but they must have produced exactly this kind of craziness. I described a case I personally talked to earlier in the year that happened in a very upscale, progressive community, where a woman refused to have her echo cardiogram done by an Armenian technician she thought was too Russian. That woman and her friends would have been horrified if a person had reacted so to progressive-protected skin color or religion, but the Russians are white and Christian, so no problem.
Sort of makes you wonder how they are going to win elections having produced emotional breakdowns like this one :