Daily Reading #31C

I have no clue about why the format is different today, but several attempts have not fixed anything. Week to week, it is the same browser instantiation, tabs, … but every once in a while a different result. WordPress?
I have long thought that the US Constitution imposes restraints upon my personal behavior. Not just ‘obey the laws’, but ‘behave in a way that allows the US Constitution to function as intended’.  Mostly just human level civility, but also higher levels such as applying as much reason and context and wisdom to my life and interactions with others as I possibly can. All necessary to allow us all to ‘live and let live’ in all of our diversity, exactly as the US Constitution intends :
It is easy to list 50+ triggers for the next US stock market crash. All of them are positive-feedback loops across national boundaries in the total world-wide socio-politico-economic system, all will also crash economies and seriously affect societies and politics.
Debt, pension funds, wealth management products, passive investments, hedge funds, trade wars, real wars and terrorist events, rising interest rates around the world due to CB ending free money, the growing # of currency controls, all those having direct effects on the stock market, feeding back into the other elements.
The Sage of Omaha, Buffet, has been out of the market for some time, has >$100B in short-term securities waiting for the break.
To be in this market is to assume that it is an inflation hedge and won’t lose significant $ in a serious inflation, now happening . The stock markets have never been inflation hedge, just the revers, and yet inflation must continue, that is what Trump’s $1.5T deficit is, and that deficit is because the US is not among the very few entities in the world which will pay back their debts in currencies of today’s values, and many, many will fail as the world realizes that.
You can’t possibly make the spreadsheets come out any other way.
Unless you retire within the next few years, it is unlikely you will ever collect a meaningful pension from Social Security. Many, many other pension funds are in the same failing position.
Actually, you will get a check, but it will be worth $0.89 in today’s buying power.  You heard about what happened to Russia, same kind of inflation is necessary to get from here to there, there is no possibility of today’s debts being repaid in today’s dollars, probably not even in next year’s dollars, which will be down a mere 10% from today’s purchasing power. 20% additional depreciation of the value in 2020, I predict. Next year, US tax receipts will be way down because of stock market losses, so the US deficit, and all the others around he world, will be 2X higher.
There is hyperinflation in our future. That is always the easiest way to go for governments that control their currency. Trump is merely the first President who will run multi-$T budget deficits back-to-back. Plan on it :


George Webb continues the investigation into our corruptions :

NYTimes is a propaganda organ. Seems like I linked to a version of this recently, but it is worth repeating if so. Flu is NOT the danger so much as the vaccines. Take your vitamin D daily and you won’t have colds or flues from one decade to the next  :


TLDavis is wrong, it isn’t ‘Communists’, although our DBS-network certainly includes  wide range of political positions, it is the fact that they all have adopted communist tactics and the thinking that allows those :


More good science blogging from John Hawks. Solid evidence of use of tools 2.2M years ago, well before modern humans evolved :




An excellent critique of the mechanisms and incentives of modern science. Not real progress, the proportion of discoveries every year originating significant lines of research, that can be judged to be of bottom-up, funded by broadly spread money , meaning many, many broad and cheap experiments instead of the directed-by-wise-men as research as now. This is a clear-thinking, critically-thinkingscientist. A wise person, which I know because she agrees with me.

But she isn’t perfect. She speaks as though she thinks that theories directly reflect the underlying reality, e.g. whether beauty can be a criterion.  Beauty is easily a criteria for a model, why produce an ugly model if you can find a beautiful model? She also thinks that theory should drive experiment, the precise problem she thinks she is dealing with. The most amazing physics still comes from the outside, technology –> physics. She doesn’t seem to equate ‘physics community’ or ‘scientific community’ with ‘insiders fostering each other’. I only listened to about 20 minutes of the Edge video :



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