Daily Reading #139

This is George Webb and Jason Goodman doing livestreams of interviews interactions with their readers, bi-directional information flow. Long, but they reveal new information, e.g. the US Congress’s outsourcing of their IT work. George Webb is intelligent, knows a hell of a lot about history, etc. Look at the interactions of the various researchers on this, the connections being made.

The Internet’s open source investigations are a new thing in the world, this is a glimpse of the change.  Trump is winning because he can use the new media, being innocent. So Cernovich is Trump’s favorite now?

Note that Facebook and Youtube probably isn’t a big supporter of these guys, but they use Facebook and Youtube.

Citizen journalism is an awesome thing, gaining power every day.  This is more powerful than printing, and the social consequences are happening faster. There are more and more people listening to these webcasts in order to provide input. Their audience are the researchers and everyone is guided by the discussion.

Sell your media stock. Long, very worthwhile :

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=dNJ7cHKN2Zk

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=MpypqirsJKw

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=DKdOgEDUDRc

The reason that the Clinton-CIA Crime Cabal is so desperate is that they are all going to hang if they don’t flee the US.  I predict that extended visits to foreign lands by all of those people begin soon :

http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2017-06-01/heres-complete-list-everyone-everything-hillary-has-blamed-her-loss

This discusses implications of the fact that major political parties have been crushed by upstarts around the world in the last few years. Yes, it is the end of an era :

http://www.epsilontheory.com/notes/westworld/

While I agree this is completely bad on the part of Muslim fundamentalists, it is a consequence of a mental set common in human beings in particular circumstances, not a fundamental of the religion :

http://www.independent.co.uk/voices/nasr-abu-zeid-quran-literal-isis-wahhabism-remember-a7762991.html

Ron Paul observes that we create more terrorists when we fight them. Killing for peace so rarely works well :

http://ronpaulinstitute.org/archives/featured-articles/2017/may/28/are-we-fighting-terrorism-or-creating-more-terrorism/

Modern auto theft rings begin with a database hack :

https://www.bleepingcomputer.com/news/security/motorcycle-gang-busted-for-hacking-and-stealing-over-150-jeep-wranglers/

No kidding, Samantha Powers is a suspect in using her power to unmask on behalf of Hillary Clinton’s election :

https://www.wsj.com/articles/samantha-power-unmasked-1496272676?shareToken=stb4c9824b0b0e4548a93a05df8615c13b&reflink=article_email_share

Good for Trump, the action is correct, however much  the words appear to want to lead to some compromise :

http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2017-06-01/watch-live-president-trump-unveils-his-decision-paris-climate-accord

That was a sound decision from a scientific view.  First, some things cannot be meaningfully modeled because of the effects of chaos. Mathematical chaos was first discovered in weather data. It limits the time into the future that a model can be more accurate than chance, less than 15 days for weather, with accuracy dropping off very rapidly after 5 – 7, depending on conditions.  Total seasonal rainfall predictions are better than chance, but only for total areas, and not more than a few years into the future, e.g. the effects of an El Nino.

Second, the models are not complete, because the science is not complete. Those are unknown unknowns, we can’t estimate their effects, nor the adequacy of the models without those effects.  At best, the climate models are guesstimates, hypotheses, perhaps aids to understanding current data, but they cannot be considered new science.

Third, the more general problem is one of validating computer models.  We can do that for some systems, but they have to be simple enough and we have to have enough data. ‘Simple’ means ‘isolated’, because nothing that is affected by many dozens of outside variables can be simple. Climate is affected by volcanos, sunspots, the earth’s changing magnetic field, the earth’s changing orbit and the average cosmic ray flux.

‘Enough data’ means ‘we know we have all possible conditions and interactions’. However, we don’t have understanding of all past weather conditions, new events are still happening, e.g. the northern jet stream crossed the equator last year, first time it was ever observed.  We have no clue what that means.

This does not mean that man is NOT affecting the climate. But it means we definitely cannot say that we are, nor how we might be affecting it.  Until we know that, spending money to fix any problems that the trends may cause for people, plants or animals, is foolish. The money should be used to stop the loss of nature, we depend upon it.

 

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