Daily Reading #31


This makes clear that the Clinton Foundation was payoff for political influence :


Goldman’s economic analysis is not to be trusted, they mislead the market for reasons of their own trades. ‘Current espansion’ is BS, GDP growth has not been larger than a real CPI for some time. There was no lowering of unemployment, it has increased only by changing the definitions of the various classes of unemployed. How could there be an expansion with employment falling continuously at companies like Catepillar, the farm equipment vendors, and now the auto industry? Even if they are right about Trump’s policies, when has an economist correctly predicted the results of an economic policy over 20 years?  :



This is considerably optimistic, I think, about their ability to convert an election victory into change. Look what happened to Obama :


Almost two full weeks have passed since November 8th and democrats and the mainstream media still have not figured out what happened on election night.  The election of Donald Trump was a wholesale rejection by the American electorate, not just of Hillary Clinton and Barack Obama, but of everything tied to the corrupt, elitist, establishment ruling class in Washington D.C.  And just to be perfectly clear, this includes you folks at the New York Times and all of the mainstream media that have been exposed by WikiLeaks as nothing more than cheerleaders for the democratic party.  So, feel free to keep fighting these battles, organizing your protests and lashing out at the American electorate for their decision…although you haven’t realized it yet…you’ve already lost the war.

All ‘big picture’ history simplifies to the point of stereotypes and simple narrative. This is no exception, and I view it as nearly useless. Had they written this last year, predicted the events instead of post-dicted, we could believe they had insight. Post-diction in narrative is sometimes interesting, but almost never correct. He thinks that the oligarchy has had control. Sort of, but it has been failing continuously. cable will need to make all of its profits from internet service, for example, and fiber optics links will eliminate that. Oligarchs don’t guess correctly more often than the rest of us, they merely have the advantage of being able to make more bets. The essay has to make more of a distinction between ‘predictable and ‘post-dictable’ crises. Cherry-picking evidence to write popular books, miserable interpretation of history. Even for these episodes, it would be more historical to show how the crises and resulting moods of the times elicited these leaders. I didn’t finish this, not interesting enough :


Central Banks have destroyed the market. Without the market functioning as a price discovery mechanism, a genuine skin-in-the-game assessment by people affected by prices, an economy cannot function. There are no examples of economies that have been centrally managed over 2 generations, and the economies of 2016 are not going to be the first that is an NP-complete problem with very large N :


The comments are the good part of this :


If I were a paranoid, I would suspect large MSMs, political groups and governments to be behind many of the ‘fake news’ web sites, and do so for the same reason I suspect anti-virus companies of assisting virus makers, they enhance the value of their products.

Likhud in Israel is corrupt, just like the Israeli-Neocons in the US :


The other problem with being an Empire is that foreign interests are very interested in your internal politics, and spend big $ to influence them. I have no idea about the source of this, but reading an analysis of Trump’s win, they aren’t the most brilliant of thinkers, so ymmv :


Peter Turchin, a very fine contemporary systematic historian with systems in his mind, says “In fact, intraelite fragmentation that we have observed in this election cycle is quite typical of other structural-demographic crises. As I wrote in a previous blog, Republicans have split into three factions, and Democrats into two. So we have five proto-parties. This is quite similar to the fragmentation of the political landscape in US during the 1850s.” This is an interesting view of intra-elite divisions and how those lead to system collapse and many good comments, back and forth with Turchin. Very good comments. Good thoughts include comparison of Russia and its problems of empire :

It Ain’t Over, Folks

Hard to trust Kissinger’s assessment of anything :


It is not often noted how little difference of social opinions there are behind the religious right in Israel and those in Saudi Arabia. Social media will eventually beat all such down as social and political forces :


This is the 2nd such article I have read, I may have included the first previously. My favorite disaster scenario is when El Nino makes the California rains the heaviest and longest, so the hills are already sagging and then we have the big one. It would be months before the major highways throughout CA would be re-opened. Food and medical supplies would be short for a while, I think :


The problem with this conversion of electricity into biofuels is that at 63 to 84% efficiency, it won’t be as efficient as coal -> electricity much less the biofuel -> electricity. More AGW thinking, another round of gasahol stupidity, will possibly extend that program because it may be more efficient than corn -> gasahol :


Another line of research which reveals the the climate models are very incomplete and also accounting for their actual inaccuracy, but presented as supporting them :


The answer to everything is ‘global warming, despite the fact their models have predicted nothing. The graphs show the increase in arctic ice sheet in Sep that I had read about. The jet streams crossed the equator, an event unknown in history, also not predicted by climate models. We know damn little about climate, really :


The longest lived bird has very stressful environments and time-to-breed is a collective decision :


This is a very well-known consequence of attempts to control beach erosion further up the beach :


This is the process of convincing Trump to keep the US in NATO. Bad idea, it is part of enlisting Europe into supporting our empire :


Ridiculous Lame Duck Agreements: Obama, EU Agree to Keep Sanctions on Russia

This goes too far. Yes MSM publishes a lot of fake news, but they are hardly responsible for the epidemic of fake news, that is produced by A) online advertising via Google and others and B) the fact that clickbait works, and MSM uses it as much as any other web site :

The Mainstream Media Has Only Itself to Blame for the ‘Fake News’ Epidemic

It’s becoming more evident that Ukraine is on the losing side of history

Syria Feature: How the Conflict Brought Israel and Russia Together

Anyone at the CIA who advocated torture was part of the 9-11 coverup, at least, because a) no professional could believe in torture as a means of extracting information and b) the only reason to use torture is to extract false confessions, false information. That was necessry to make it appear there were large terrorist organizations attacking the US, when in fact the US had supported very nearly all of the terrorists in the ME with $, arms, and training. We are still doing that. This means that Trump will not investigate the CIA, and that means the massive corruption of our government will continue :


For those who want to know, a list of interesting facts, context for the world we live within and what lead to our being in this situation :


Peter Turchin is a leading historian, quantitative methodology, and so his predictions have more substance to them than most discussions of our political and social systems :

The Presidential Election of 2016 through the Lens of Cliodynamics


Trump in meeting with MSM execs : “In a roomful of liars”.  Seems right to me.


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