2016 Election Predictions

I decided to use the election to check my understanding of how things work with some public thinking, exposing myself to the probability of being wrong, even stupid due to partisanship or ideology or other mental flaw I do not recognize. So predictions* today, will follow with frequent consideration of right/wrong and the why so far as I can understand those.

I could back those up with many of the links I have provided in the last #22 Daily Reading lists, themselves representative of my information sources over the last few years.  Wide information and confirming sources doesn’t mean I am correct, only that I am probably not missing simple contrary evidence and others have similar views of events and their meanings.

I predict this election will be A) a raw vote landslide for Trump and b) a stolen election leaving many trails of evidence, including bribed electors and c) even if Trump is allowed to win (be assured that ‘allowed‘ is the case, also this), the new year is the beginning of a period of partisanship in government and society motivated by opposing ideologies* aligned with economic interests such as drove our First Civil War. Further, I think the nation will engage in a contest that will be seen as America’s Second Civil War, as I think that America’s social, economic and political institutions are less capable of arriving at a peaceful resolution of the issues of today than they were in 1850, and that we are at about equivalent points in the progression to Civil War. I am not making predictions about timing of other events, tho I note that history moves faster with the new Internet News cycle illustrated by Wikileaks and the alternative and social media.

The only points of the current scene that I think argue against a full-scale Civil War are A) the general geographic and network intermixing of the economic interests, B) the lesser, but still very substantial, geographic and social mixing of the interest groups, C) the fact that we are a much wiser population than we were in 1850 with much better sources of opinion and a very broad range of those easily available, as well as so many people taking advantage of them, D) the fact that the insurgents are very well armed relative to the Progressive segment of the population, and E) the armed services and police forces are very split in their opinions, but the lower levels tend to the Constitutional and Patriot povs, and support Trump rather than Clinton. Each of these and several of the combinations have existed in countries that have descended into Civil War in the last 30 or so years, so they are not absolute barriers.

Counterbalancing those, again I note how bad ruling classes are at giving up power through the centuries, and point to the vast hubris revealed by 9-11, the False Flag Operation run by the CIA and Mossad. That segment of our leadership will hang if we restore normal law-abiding government, barring their confessions in an Amnesty process. If we assume that the Deep State or any of the Israeli-Neocon political groups can affect the elections’ outcomes, they will. Taking over countries is a CIA specialty, and we now see their handiwork in many events here at home. The NSA’s searchable global blackmail databases produced by ubiquitous surveillance is an element of that takeover.

The major drive to a Civil War is the same combination of deep philosophical divisions aligned with economic interests that produced our First Civil War. Then it was Northern Industrialist Merchantilists wanting high tariffs to protect their markets vs the South’s agricultural economy, which needed low tariffs. The philosophical divide was slavery vs State’s Rights, both sides of that controversy were correct, but could not find a political compromise. No other country had a war to abolish slavery, our Civil War was a very major political failure, a major step in centralizing power in the US.

The current economic interests are, broadly, government-controlled or -supported sectors vs the rest. Clinton’s supporters are oligarchs, public employees, people dependent upon government programs, and the various crony-capitalist sectors such as education, medicine, large corporations, banksters, … Trump’s supporters are working class and main street, the small business owners and Middle America.

The values that divide us : PC vs open expression of views. The PC pov rests on the priority of not ever offending anyone’s sensibilities in public words or actions. In practice, it is a standard ruling class tactic to prevent bringing up anything they don’t want to discuss. The original Liberal value is everything must be discussed openly, as there is no substitute for simple, clear, consistent expression of thinking as a way of improving everything. Open discussion allows interests to contend without resorting to violence, and can produce very positive-sum outcomes. Suppressing discussion produces violence.

The other major social-philosophical divide is largely aligned with the PC dimension, ‘rule by elites’ vs ‘rule by the people’. The Progressives believe government should be used to improve the civilization, to raise up the different segments of a society to at least some minimum level of education and life satisfaction. This requires ‘programs’ funded by taxes and administered by people qualified to do so. Progressives define themselves and their views as the wiser part of society, and the only ones qualified to rule.

Both major parties are Progressive by these criteria, and all major institutions in our society are populated by Progressives in their leadership. Thus, the alternative approaches to managing the social order are not often considered. For example, the ‘small government’ views are never heard in a Presidential debate, and the role of non-government institutions in most discussions are confined to NGOs, all funded by government or oligarchs.

Trump seems to me to be firmly on the opposite side to both of these fundamental Progressive values, the reason this election is a rejection of the entire Status Quo.

I very much hope I am wrong about the stolen election and Second Civil War, but trends and evidence seem to me convincing.

*A special warning about predictions : warnings about predictions don’t work because warnings don’t work, not because predictions don’t work, although they don’t work. In fact, predictions work very well as propaganda disguised as a variety of hypothesis about the nature of the future, the ‘hypothesis’ aspect of the prediction is normally hidden, of course, along with the careful selection of possible futures to favor your optimal future state.

For some reason that escapes me, most people do not evaluate predictions as carefully as they would even an ordinary business plan, much less as propaganda streams guided by the most sophisticated groups of the PR business funded very generously by oligarchs, MSM and government.

People don’t take warnings seriously, either. In fact, they are a standard propaganda mechanism to disarm your mental defenses. Like this, in fact. You will find many such, many amusing, reading through this web site, and every one will disarm your mind, make it more accepting of my thoughts.

I keep warning you, yet people keep reading the warnings.

This was edited a bit after it was published, will not be touched further. This is an opportunity to test my predictions, my system-level projections of the future. I warn you again, people are very bad at this, the world is infinite complexity, our minds not so much.

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One thought on “2016 Election Predictions

  1. Redirected from ZH….A good reading of the situation at hand and well laid out;
    Minor point: your spelling of ‘though’ as ‘tho” in the third paragraph….either a mistake, or not appropriate to the level of your reflexion.
    Cheers to you!

    Chandos

    Like

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